MLB / mlb / live
scheduledSTLSt. Louis Cardinals47%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterQuinn MathewsProbable
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260727_auto
TORHome starterKevin GausmanProbable
STL47%ML +124
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
TOR53%ML -146
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%
O 2.557%
O 3.536%
O 4.519%
O 5.59%
O 6.54%
O 7.51%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.578%
O 4.563%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+124 / -146STL / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total