MLB / mlb / live
STL 5 / TOR 1STLSt. Louis Cardinals45%
TORToronto Blue Jays55%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
TORHome starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
STL45%ML +114
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
TOR55%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.1
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 fanduel / U +132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.577%
O 3.558%
O 4.539%
O 5.524%
O 6.513%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -146 draftkings / U +130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%
O 2.567%
O 3.546%
O 4.527%
O 5.515%
O 6.57%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+114 / -132STL / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total