MLB / mlb / live
STL 5 / TOR 1STLSt. Louis Cardinals45%
TORToronto Blue Jays55%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
TORHome starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
STL45%ML +114
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TOR55%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -143 betrivers / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -152 draftkings / U +125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -132STL / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total