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CHW 3 / TOR 0
CHWChicago White Sox44%
TORToronto Blue Jays56%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterSean BurkeConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline56%Model 20260713_auto
TORHome starterTrey YesavageConfirmed
CHW44%ML -116
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
TOR56%ML -103

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts

Model favors TOR 55.6% vs market 47.8%, an 8-point gap. CHW has better record (51-46 vs 46-52) and offense (4.8 vs 4.1 RPG). offense_defense_mismatch flag fires because model picks worse team. Burke's 3.41 ERA and 9.79 K/9 in 105 IP is stronger than Yesavage's 3.72/8.28 in 75 IP. Market lean to CHW makes more sense; model's total 9.07 vs line 8.0 suggests over.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -104 draftkings / U -120 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Trey YesavageTOR starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -153 draftkings / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-116 / -103CHW / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total