MLB / mlb / live
TBR 7 / TOR 1TBRTampa Bay Rays39%
TORToronto Blue Jays61%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick MartinezConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline61%Model 20260720_auto
TORHome starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
TBR39%ML +150
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
TOR61%ML -178
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.3 pts
Model has TOR 60.8%, market implies 58.5%—tight alignment. Both starters sub-2.65 ERA over 10 GS each, ace matchup flag fires correctly. Market total 7.5 vs model 8.45 suggests under lean. TOR slight comparison at home but confidence stays lean.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +140 betonlineag / U -160 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.566%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K7.9Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betrivers / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.579%over
O 6.566%over
O 7.553%under
O 8.540%under
O 9.528%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+150 / -178TBR / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+126)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total