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CHW 0 / TOR 1
CHWChicago White Sox49%
TORToronto Blue Jays51%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterDavis MartinConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline51%Model 20260713_auto
TORHome starterShane BieberConfirmed
CHW49%ML -108
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
TOR51%ML -109

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts

Model sees a coin flip (50.8% TOR), market slightly favors CHW (51.6%). Bieber's 7.64 ERA in 17.7 IP is a real disaster; Martin's 3.41 in 100+ IP is legit. CHW's 5.1 RPG offense vs TOR's struggling 4.2 RPG tilts this away. Total 8.97 vs market 8.5 is close; lean over given Bieber's form.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Davis MartinCHW starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -117 draftkings / U -105 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shane BieberTOR starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 draftkings / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-108 / -109CHW / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total