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NYM 1 / TOR 2
NYMNew York Mets54%
TORToronto Blue Jays46%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260629_auto
TORHome starterTrey YesavageConfirmed
NYM54%ML +107
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
TOR46%ML -126

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.1 pts

Model has NYM at 53.6%, market has TOR at 54%. Near-toss-up with thin comparison to away side. More importantly, model predicts 6.86 runs vs market 8.5—a 1.64-run gap flags structural mispricing. Both starters sub-5 ERA, Rogers Centre neutral park. Model total looks right; lean under 8.5.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 bovada / U -149 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Trey YesavageTOR starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 draftkings / U +110 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+107 / -126NYM / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total