MLB / mlb / live
TEX 7 / TOR 4TEXTexas Rangers46%
TORToronto Blue Jays54%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline54%Model 20260622_auto
TORHome starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
TEX46%ML +160
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
TOR54%ML -195
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K1.9Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.557%over
O 2.530%over
O 3.513%over
O 4.55%over
O 5.52%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K8.3Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -140 fanduel / U +114 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 7.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.596%over
O 4.590%over
O 5.582%over
O 6.570%over
O 7.558%over
O 8.545%over
O 9.533%over
O 10.523%under
O 11.515%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+160 / -195TEX / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total