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TEX 6 / TOR 5
TEXTexas Rangers58%
TORToronto Blue Jays42%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
TORHome starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
TEX58%ML +121
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
TOR42%ML -145

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.9 pts

Model has TEX 58.3%, market has TOR 57.9% — near coin flip. Model leans TEX despite TOR's better record and offense (1.7 vs 1.3 RPG, .786 vs .698 OPS). Both starters solid: Gausman 4.04 ERA/9.0 K9, Gore 4.07 ERA/9.86 K9. Market total 8.0 vs model 7.3 suggests under value. Offense mismatch flag justified but margins thin.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -136 draftkings / U +120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 draftkings / U +116 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+121 / -145TEX / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -116
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total