MLB / mlb / live
HOU 3 / TOR 1HOUHouston Astros48%
TORToronto Blue Jays52%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterMike BurrowsConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
TORHome starterTrey YesavageConfirmed
HOU48%ML +120
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
TOR52%ML -144
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mike BurrowsHOU starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 betonlineag / U +130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Trey YesavageTOR starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 fanduel / U -105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -144HOU / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total