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NYY 5 / TOR 8
NYYNew York Yankees47%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterRyan Weathers
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterTrey Yesavage
NYY47%ML +102
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
TOR53%ML -122

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.8 pts

Model sees a coin flip (50.6% TOR) matching market (-107/-101). TOR pitcher is TBD fallback with 10.23 ERA placeholder stats; real pitcher unknown. NYY superior offense (5.4 RPG vs 4.2) and record (41-26 vs 33-36) argue for away side. Model total 9.21 vs market 8.0 suggests over, but pitcher uncertainty makes this a lean only.

pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Ryan WeathersNYY starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +145 bovada / U -150 fanatics3 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Trey YesavageTOR starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 betmgm / U -145 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%under
O 4.571%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+102 / -122NYY / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total