MLB / mlb / live
PHI 5 / TOR 2PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
TORToronto Blue Jays45%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterCristopher Sánchez
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterPatrick Corbin
PHI55%ML -178
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
TOR45%ML +150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.3 pts
Model has PHI at 55.2%, market implies 61.9%. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is microscopic sample noise. Model total of 9.14 vs market 7.5 is a 1.64-run gap; likely overweighting TOR offense without adjusting for Sánchez quality. Lean PHI, under total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-178 / +150PHI / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -101 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total