MLB / mlb / live
PHI 5 / TOR 2PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
TORToronto Blue Jays45%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterCristopher Sánchez
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterPatrick Corbin
PHI55%ML -178
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TOR45%ML +150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.6 pts
Model has PHI at 55.2%, market implies 61.9%. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is microscopic sample noise. Model total of 9.14 vs market 7.5 is a 1.64-run gap; likely overweighting TOR offense without adjusting for Sánchez quality. Lean PHI, under total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-178 / +150PHI / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -101 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total