MLB / mlb / live
MIA 1 / TOR 2MIAMiami Marlins46%
TORToronto Blue Jays54%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterEury Pérez
Model pickTOR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterKevin Gausman
MIA46%ML +130
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
TOR54%ML -153
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.6 pts
Model predicts 9.22 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.72-run gap flags structural miss. Gausman's 1.50 ERA/16.5 K/9 in 60 IP is elite; market implies 58% TOR vs model's 54%, suggesting modest home lean. Total is suspect: Rogers Centre is neutral (PF 0.997), Gausman dominant. Model likely overweighting offensive stats against pitcher quality. Lean TOR, strong under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -153MIA / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -117
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total