MLB / mlb / live
PIT 4 / TOR 1PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
TORToronto Blue Jays58%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterMitch Keller
Model pickTOR moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
PIT42%ML +146
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
TOR58%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.9 pts
Model likes TOR 58% vs market 60.5%, no comparison. Keller's 0.0 ERA in 6 IP (10 starts listed but only 6 IP = 0.6 IP/start average) is corrupted data. Cease 1.69 ERA / 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP is tiny sample but elite. Ace matchup + neutral park argue under 7.5. Passing on side, lean under on credible Cease data.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+146 / -175PIT / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total