MLB / mlb / live
PIT 2 / TOR 5PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
TORToronto Blue Jays54%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterPaul Skenes
Model pickTOR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterPatrick Corbin
PIT46%ML -147
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TOR54%ML +123
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.0 pts
Model has TOR 53.5%, market implies PIT 58.5% — a 12pp gap flags structural miss. Skenes' 0.2 IP sample is noise (67.5 ERA meaningless), but market knows he's elite. TOR offense at 3.9 RPG/.786 OPS vs PIT 4.4 RPG suggests model wrongly favors weaker side. Lean PIT and under the 7.5.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-147 / +123PIT / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -123
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total