MLB / mlb / live
TBR 3 / TOR 5TBRTampa Bay Rays52%
TORToronto Blue Jays48%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterGriffin Jax
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
TBR52%ML +136
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
TOR48%ML -162
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.5 pts
Model has TBR at 52% but market implies TOR 59%. Cease (1.69 ERA, 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP) is elite but sample tiny. Jax (18.0 ERA, 1.0 IP) data is essentially noise. Model's 9.24 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.74-run gap—classic structural miss on small pitcher samples. Market knows Jax isn't really that bad and likely adjusted for Cease's micro-sample. Side with sharp money on TOR and under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+136 / -162TBR / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total