MLB / mlb / live
TBR 8 / TOR 5TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
TORToronto Blue Jays58%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickTOR moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterKevin Gausman
TBR42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TOR58%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.4 pts
Model has TOR 57.5% vs market 53.2%. Gausman's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP with 16.5 K/9 is elite. Rasmussen's 3.6 K/9 is concerning but 1.80 ERA holds. Ace matchup supports under on 7.5 total. TBR's superior record (26-13) vs TOR (18-22) keeps this a lean.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132TBR / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total