MLB / mlb / live
LAA 0 / TOR 2LAALos Angeles Angels43%
TORToronto Blue Jays57%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid Detmers
Model pickTOR moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
LAA43%ML +138
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
TOR57%ML -164
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts
Model has TOR 57% vs market 60%, reasonable convergence. Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP is extreme small sample—likely regresses but still strong today. Detmers' 5.79 ERA and 1.29 WHIP favor TOR offense. Model total 8.81 vs market 7.5 is 1.3-run gap; LAA's 4.0 RPG and .860 OPS suggest they can score on anyone. Lean over on total despite Cease.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+138 / -164LAA / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total