MLB / mlb / live
BOS 5 / TOR 0BOSBoston Red Sox42%
TORToronto Blue Jays58%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterRanger Suarez
Model pickTOR moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterDylan Cease
BOS42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
TOR58%ML -143
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.1 pts
Model's 9.07 total vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—largest flag here. Cease's 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP is microscopic sample, but elite strikeout stuff is real. Suarez missing all season stats suggests data issue or extremely limited work. Market at 7.0 knows something about pitcher availability or conditions we don't see. Lean TOR on moneyline convergence but defer to market under on total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -143BOS / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total