MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / TOR 5CLECleveland Guardians47%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
TORHome starterKevin Gausman
CLE47%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
TOR53%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.0 pts
Gausman's 1.50 ERA, 16.5 K/9, 0.17 WHIP over 6.0 IP (likely 1 start) screams elite form. Cantillo's 4.91 ERA, 1.91 WHIP is exploitable. Market at TOR -144 (57.8% implied) vs model 53.4% suggests value on TOR. Model total 9.09 vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—likely overweighting offense, underweighting Gausman's dominance in pitcher-neutral park.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150CLE / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total