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TOR 2 / TEX 6
TORToronto Blue Jays54%
TEXTexas Rangers46%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline54%Model 20260914_auto
TEXHome starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
TOR54%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TEX46%ML -112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts

Market is a true pick'em and the model's 53.9% on TOR comes with the offense_defense_mismatch flag: Toronto has the worse record (76-78) and scores 4.0 RPG to Texas' 5.0. Quantrill's 2.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home edges Soriano's 3.56/1.27, so I take the small home side. Model's 9.17 total sits 1.67 above the 7.5 line despite two solid starters; under is the better side.

total far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
José SorianoTOR starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 draftkings / U +120 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Cal QuantrillTEX starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +132 draftkings / U -145 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-106 / -112TOR / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-182)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total