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TBR 6 / TEX 3
TBRTampa Bay Rays55%
TEXTexas Rangers45%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline55%Model 20260831_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
TBR55%ML -108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TEX45%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts

Market is pick'em but Tampa Bay carries an 84-57 record and the better arm: Rasmussen's 2.95 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 146.1 IP outclasses deGrom's 4.00 ERA, even with deGrom's 10.94 K/9. The model's 8.58-run total sits 1.6 above the 7.0 line; with two starters at sub-1.15 WHIP and only a 1.04 park factor, that gap looks like a structural miss. Under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.5
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -111 fanduel / U +110 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-108 / -110TBR / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total