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OAK 1 / TEX 8
OAKOakland Athletics42%
TEXTexas Rangers58%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterGage JumpConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260831_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
OAK42%ML +185
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TEX58%ML -218

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.2 pts

Market implies 66.8% for TEX while the model sits at 57.6% — a 9-point gap I side with the market on. deGrom's 10.98 K/9 and 1.18 WHIP against an Oakland offense at .512 OPS is a mismatch, and Jump's 1.46 WHIP limits the counter. Model total of 8.65 vs a 7.5 line looks high given deGrom's strikeout profile; slight under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gage JumpOAK starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 betmgm / U -108 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -105 betonlineag / U -110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+185 / -218OAK / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total