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WSN 0 / TEX 5
WSNWashington Nationals44%
TEXTexas Rangers56%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterJackson KentConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
TEXHome starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
WSN44%ML +125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
TEX56%ML -145

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.7 pts

Model (55.9%) sits slightly under market's implied 58.6% on TEX, so no price comparison. Quantrill's 70.7 IP at 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP is the only established starter here; Kent has 4 IP with a 2.00 WHIP. But Texas at 3.0 RPG and .698 OPS versus Washington's 5.0 RPG and .820 OPS caps conviction. An unproven arm plus a 1.04 park factor nudges me over the 8.0 line, though model's 9.5 is too aggressive.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jackson KentWSN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 fanduel / U -150 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Cal QuantrillTEX starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 bovada / U +102 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+125 / -145WSN / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total