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BAL 1 / TEX 5
BALBaltimore Orioles52%
TEXTexas Rangers48%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterKyle BradishConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
BAL52%ML +130
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
TEX48%ML -152

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.3 pts

Model's 52% on BAL leans on Statcast launch-angle noise and clashes with the market's 58.3% home. deGrom's 10.69 K/9 and 1.14 WHIP outclass Bradish's 1.36 WHIP, and BAL's .662 OPS is the weaker bat. The 9.26 model total sits 1.76 above the 7.5 line despite two sub-3.5 RPG-ish offenses; under is the better side.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +113 betonlineag / U -140 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%over
O 7.540%over
O 8.528%over
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+130 / -152BAL / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+149)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total