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SEA 3 / TEX 7
SEASeattle Mariners54%
TEXTexas Rangers46%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
TEXHome starterKumar RockerConfirmed
SEA54%ML -132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TEX46%ML +111

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.6 pts

Model has SEA 54.2%, market implies 55.8% — tight convergence. Kirby's 3.57 ERA vs Rocker's 4.13 ERA supports Seattle slight comparison. Model total 9.27 vs market 8.0 is a 1.27-run gap; Globe Life's 1.04 park factor and SEA's .793 OPS (elite) argue the model's higher total has merit. offense_defense_mismatch flag likely misfires on OPS disparity.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.6
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +111 draftkings / U -132 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kumar RockerTEX starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -108 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +111SEA / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total