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SEA 1 / TEX 7
SEASeattle Mariners45%
TEXTexas Rangers55%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryan WooConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
TEXHome starterNathan EovaldiConfirmed
SEA45%ML -110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TEX55%ML -108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts

Model has TEX 54.9% vs market's 48.6% for SEA. SEA's .793 OPS with 3.8 RPG is odd (strong contact, weak scoring). Woo/Eovaldi both ~4.2 ERA; Woo's 1.09 WHIP edges 1.21. Model total 8.75 vs market 7.5 is wide, likely overweight on TEX road runs allowed. Lean SEA, over on the gap.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -116 betonlineag / U +108 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / home
Projected K6.8Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 betonlineag / U -137 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.579%over
O 5.565%over
O 6.551%over
O 7.537%over
O 8.525%under
O 9.516%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -108SEA / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-184)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total