sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

SEA 6 / TEX 4
SEASeattle Mariners46%
TEXTexas Rangers54%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
SEA46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TEX54%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.7 pts

Model has TEX at 54% vs market's 50.2% — essentially a coin flip. Gilbert's 3.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 120 IP is more proven than deGrom's 105 IP return. Model total of 8.43 vs market 7.0 is a 1.43-run gap; Globe Life PF 1.04 and SEA's .793 OPS support the over lean. Slight comparison to SEA in what should be a close game.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan GilbertSEA starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +108 betrivers / U -127 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%under
O 5.563%under
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.523%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +126 fanduel / U -142 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%under
O 5.569%under
O 6.555%under
O 7.541%under
O 8.529%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-106 / -110SEA / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total