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CHW 10 / TEX 3
CHWChicago White Sox46%
TEXTexas Rangers54%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterErick FeddeConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
CHW46%ML +142
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TEX54%ML -168

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.8 pts

Model has TEX 54% vs market's 61% — a 7pp gap favoring CHW value. deGrom's 3.49 ERA in 100.7 IP is elite but market overprices TEX at home. Fedde's 4.15 ERA/1.42 WHIP is beatable. Model total 8.94 vs market 7.5 suggests 1.4 runs of over value; Globe Life's 1.04 PF supports it. Lean CHW and over.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Erick FeddeCHW starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +116 betrivers / U -138 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.512%over
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K7.2Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -146 fanduel / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.571%over
O 6.557%under
O 7.543%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+142 / -168CHW / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total