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DET 6 / TEX 3
DETDetroit Tigers44%
TEXTexas Rangers56%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterCasey MizeConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
TEXHome starterKumar RockerConfirmed
DET44%ML -125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
TEX56%ML +105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.1 pts

Model favors TEX at 55.9% but market has DET at 53.7%. Mize's 2.63 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 65 IP is legitimate; market respects this. Model's 9.06 total is 1.56 runs above market's 7.5—a structural miss given Mize's season line. Lean DET and under, but model disagreement flags caution.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey MizeDET starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -172 betonlineag / U +136 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Kumar RockerTEX starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -142 fanduel / U +123 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-125 / +105DET / TEX moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total