sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

LAA 3 / TEX 8
LAALos Angeles Angels40%
TEXTexas Rangers60%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
TEXHome starterJacob deGromConfirmed
LAA40%ML +138
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
TEX60%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.0 pts

Model and market perfectly aligned at 60% TEX. DeGrom (3.48 ERA) and Soriano (3.42 ERA) qualify as ace matchup, but model predicts 8.64 runs vs market 7.0—a 1.64 gap. Globe Life is neutral park (1.04). LAA's .860 OPS screams data error (league-leading by 60 points), likely driving model's inflated total. Lean TEX on pitching comparison, lean over cautiously given suspect LAA offensive input.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
José SorianoLAA starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betrivers / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob deGromTEX starter / home
Projected K7.6Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -108 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 7.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.586%over
O 5.576%over
O 6.563%over
O 7.549%under
O 8.536%under
O 9.525%under
O 10.516%under
O 11.510%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -164LAA / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total