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SDP 3 / TEX 4
SDPSan Diego Padres42%
TEXTexas Rangers58%

at Globe Life Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterWandy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260616_auto
TEXHome starterNathan EovaldiConfirmed
SDP42%ML +136
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
TEX58%ML -164

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.2 pts

SDP pitcher is TBD fallback data (77.7 IP, 4.17 ERA aggregate). Model total 9.47 vs market 7.5 is a 2-run gap—largest structural miss flag. Eovaldi 4.23 ERA in 87.3 IP is real but model weighing short-term launch angles over pitcher quality. Without knowing SDP starter, no comparison exists.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Wandy PeraltaSDP starter / away
Projected K2.4Actual 0 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.568%under
O 2.542%under
O 3.521%under
O 4.59%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Nathan EovaldiTEX starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanatics / U +112 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+136 / -164SDP / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total