MLB / mlb / live
MIN 4 / TEX 2MINMinnesota Twins42%
TEXTexas Rangers58%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterMike ParedesConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
MIN42%ML +128
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
TEX58%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Mike ParedesMIN starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%under
O 3.545%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -162 fanduel / U +132 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.54%over
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+128 / -152MIN / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -109 / U -111
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total