MLB / mlb / live
CLE 0 / TEX 10CLECleveland Guardians46%
TEXTexas Rangers54%
at Globe Life Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickTEX moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
TEXHome starterJacob deGrom
CLE46%ML +120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
TEX54%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.0 pts
deGrom has zero IP/ERA data despite 10 starts — critical stats are missing for the ace. Cantillo's 3.2 IP over 10 starts suggests opener usage, not traditional starter. Model predicts 9.01 runs vs market 7.0, a massive 2-run gap that flags structural uncertainty. Without deGrom's actual performance data, cannot assess either side or total with any conviction.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -145CLE / TEX moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -117 / U -103
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total