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OAK 1 / TBR 10
OAKOakland Athletics29%
TBRTampa Bay Rays71%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline71%Model 20260914_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
OAK29%ML +222
Base model probability71%Moneyline only
TBR71%ML -275

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts

Model (70.6%) and market (71.0% implied) agree on Tampa Bay, so there's no comparison to exploit but the side is well-supported: Rasmussen's 2.81 ERA/0.92 WHIP against an Oakland offense at .512 OPS and 3.5 RPG. Model's 8.54 total sits a run above the 7.5 line; Springs' 5.93 ERA justifies some of that, but Oakland's punchless bats in a neutral park argue under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.8
Projected total8.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +122 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%over
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 fanduel / U +112 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%under
O 4.571%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+222 / -275OAK / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total