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OAK 3 / TBR 4
OAKOakland Athletics39%
TBRTampa Bay Rays61%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterBrady BassoConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
TBRHome starterNick MartinezConfirmed
OAK39%ML +152
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
TBR61%ML -182

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts

Model (61.4%) and market (63.2%) essentially agree on Tampa Bay; no comparison either way, so this is a defensible side without value. Martinez's 2.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 166 IP against an Oakland offense at .512 OPS and 3.9 RPG argues under the 8.0 line; the model's 8.56 total looks high given Basso's limited but adequate 3.86 ERA.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brady BassoOAK starter / away
Projected K2.5Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -115 bovada / U -105 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 2.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.570%under
O 2.545%under
O 3.524%under
O 4.511%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betonlineag / U +112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+152 / -182OAK / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+117)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total