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HOU 2 / TBR 3
HOUHouston Astros44%
TBRTampa Bay Rays56%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterPeter LambertConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
TBRHome starterIan SeymourConfirmed
HOU44%ML +126
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
TBR56%ML -148

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total7.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 betonlineag / U -160 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.522%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+126 / -148HOU / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total