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NYM 2 / TBR 6
NYMNew York Mets55%
TBRTampa Bay Rays45%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline55%Model 20260831_auto
TBRHome starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
NYM55%ML +115
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TBR45%ML -136

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.6 pts

Model takes NYM (62-76, .736 OPS, 3.4 RPG) over TBR (82-55, .802 OPS) against the market's -125 home price, a ~10-point implied gap with no clear structural justification. Peralta's 5.11 ERA is the model's hook, but Manaea at 4.55 isn't an comparison either. Model's 9.45 total sits nearly 2 runs above the 7.5 line in a neutral park (PF 1.00) with two low-scoring offenses; I side with the market on both.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.5
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -156 fanduel / U +127 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+115 / -136NYM / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total