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NYM 10 / TBR 4
NYMNew York Mets47%
TBRTampa Bay Rays53%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterJustin HagenmanConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline53%Model 20260831_auto
TBRHome starterGriffin JaxConfirmed
NYM47%ML +155
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TBR53%ML -184

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Justin HagenmanNYM starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -156 betonlineag / U +125 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 2.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.558%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 bovada / U -128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -184NYM / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -109
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total