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NYM 3 / TBR 2
NYMNew York Mets37%
TBRTampa Bay Rays63%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterRobert StockConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline63%Model 20260831_auto
TBRHome starterIan SeymourConfirmed
NYM37%ML +160
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
TBR63%ML -192

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts

Model (62.5%) and market (61.4%) agree on Tampa Bay, and the pitching comparison is clear: Seymour has 107 IP with a 1.15 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 versus Stock's 7.40 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. Stock at 20.7 IP over 8 starts signals a bullpen game, which adds variance but not necessarily runs. Combined 7.3 RPG for these two offenses sits under the 8.0 line, so I'll take the under lightly.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robert StockNYM starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 fanduel / U -142 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.529%over
O 8.519%over
O 9.511%over
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+160 / -192NYM / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total