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TOR 5 / TBR 1
TORToronto Blue Jays32%
TBRTampa Bay Rays68%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterShane BieberConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline68%Model 20260817_auto
TBRHome starterIan SeymourConfirmed
TOR32%ML +142
Base model probability68%Moneyline only
TBR68%ML -170

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.4 pts

TBR at 76-50 with 6.3 RPG and .802 OPS is the stronger side, and Bieber's 4.99 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP over 48.7 IP is a soft matchup; model 67.9% vs market 60.5% is a tolerable gap. The 9.06 total is 2 runs above the 7.0 line and overshoots, but Bieber's baserunner rate plus TBR's offense in a neutral park (PF 1.00) justifies a modest over lean rather than the model's full gap.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%over
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -134 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+142 / -170TOR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -102
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total