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SDP 4 / TBR 9
SDPSan Diego Padres53%
TBRTampa Bay Rays47%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterCasey MizeConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260824_auto
TBRHome starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
SDP53%ML +110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TBR47%ML -128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.5 pts

Model's 53.5% on SDP fights both the market (implied 55% home) and the record gap (TBR 79-54 vs SDP 72-62), with TBR's .802 OPS well ahead of San Diego's .547. McClanahan's 3.10 ERA/1.12 WHIP edges Mize's 3.44/1.09 in a neutral park. Model's 8.77 total sits over a mile above the 7.5 line in an ace matchup; take the under.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey MizeSDP starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +112 fanduel / U -117 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.569%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Shane McClanahanTBR starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 fanduel / U -126 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -128SDP / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total