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TOR 6 / TBR 7
TORToronto Blue Jays43%
TBRTampa Bay Rays57%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
TOR43%ML +173
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
TBR57%ML -205

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.6 pts

Market's 65.7% on TBR looks better calibrated than the model's 57%; Rasmussen (2.78 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.26 K/9) against Scherzer (6.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 41 IP) is a clear starter comparison, plus TBR's 75-50 record and 5.9 RPG. No value at -204 so only standard. Model's 9.36 total sits 1.9 runs above the 7.5 line with a neutral park (PF 1.00) and Rasmussen suppressing one side, so no total view.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Max ScherzerTOR starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 draftkings / U -109 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.564%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+173 / -205TOR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total