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TOR 10 / TBR 5
TORToronto Blue Jays44%
TBRTampa Bay Rays56%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
TBRHome starterNick MartinezConfirmed
TOR44%ML +115
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
TBR56%ML -135

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts

Model (55.9%) and market (54.8%) essentially agree on Tampa Bay, and TBR's 75-49 record with 5.6 RPG and .802 OPS backs it against a 61-65 Toronto club scoring 4.1. Martinez at 2.74 ERA / 1.09 WHIP and Soriano at 3.16 with 9.02 K/9 in a neutral park (PF 1.00) argue under; the model's 8.98 total sits nearly 1.5 runs above the 7.5 line and looks structurally high for this matchup.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
José SorianoTOR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -145 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Nick MartinezTBR starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 fanatics / U -141 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+115 / -135TOR / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total