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BAL 10 / TBR 2
BALBaltimore Orioles61%
TBRTampa Bay Rays39%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline61%Model 20260810_auto
TBRHome starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
BAL61%ML +125
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
TBR39%ML -148

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time18.4 pts

Model takes BAL despite a 60-63 record and .662 OPS against TBR's 74-48 and .802 OPS at 6.0 RPG — a clear offense/defense mismatch, so side with the market's 57% on Tampa Bay. Peralta's 5.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP make 7.5 reachable, but the model's 9.56 is too far past the line to trust.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.8
Projected total9.6
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -130 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +130 betmgm / U -145 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+125 / -148BAL / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -117 / U -104
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total