sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TEX 2 / TBR 3
TEXTexas Rangers51%
TBRTampa Bay Rays49%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterCole WinnConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
TBRHome starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
TEX51%ML +151
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
TBR49%ML -180

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.4 pts

Model has TEX 51% but market has TBR 59% — an 8-point gap favoring the home side. McClanahan (3.09 ERA, 96 IP) is a legitimate ace while Winn (6.11 ERA, 35 IP) is struggling. TBR's 63-44 record vs TEX's 55-53 supports the market view. Model's total of 8.92 vs market 7.5 likely reflects Winn's poor season numbers; I lean over given his weak control.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cole WinnTEX starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.0Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%under
O 2.558%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Shane McClanahanTBR starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -160 betmgm / U +127 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+151 / -180TEX / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total