sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TEX 0 / TBR 3
TEXTexas Rangers54%
TBRTampa Bay Rays46%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
TBRHome starterCasey LeguminaConfirmed
TEX54%ML +123
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TBR46%ML -145

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.8 pts

Model likes TEX 54.2%, market has TBR at 56.6% — a 12-point swing triggering the disagreement flag. TBR's offense (4.7 RPG, .802 OPS) is superior to TEX (5.4 RPG, .698 OPS), and Gore's 4.82 ERA in 115 IP is mediocre. Model's 8.83 total vs market 7.5 suggests structural miss on offense; lean TBR side and over on total.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total10.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betonlineag / U -144 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Casey LeguminaTBR starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%under
O 2.547%under
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+123 / -145TEX / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total