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CLE 3 / TBR 11
CLECleveland Guardians54%
TBRTampa Bay Rays46%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
TBRHome starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
CLE54%ML +118
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TBR46%ML -140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.1 pts

Market has TBR at 56.8% vs model's CLE lean at 54.3%. Model underweights McClanahan's quality (3.16 ERA, 8.41 K/9 in 91 IP) vs Cantillo's shakier profile (3.74 ERA, 1.42 WHIP). CLE offense is weak (.600 OPS). Model's 8.69 total is 1.2 runs over market 7.5, but neutral park and neither pitcher elite argues the model may be right on over.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 betrivers / U +120 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 4.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%under
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Shane McClanahanTBR starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betmgm / U -140 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+118 / -140CLE / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total