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NYY 12 / TBR 4
NYYNew York Yankees39%
TBRTampa Bay Rays61%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterPaul BlackburnConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
TBRHome starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
NYY39%ML +125
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
TBR61%ML -150

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.2 pts

Away starter TBD plus no market data leaves too many gaps. Rasmussen's 2.78 ERA over 97 IP is legit but opponent pitcher uncertainty makes both side and total unreadable. Model favors TBR at 60% but without market context cannot assess if that's value or consensus.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Paul BlackburnNYY starter / away
Projected K2.6Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%over
O 2.547%over
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 bovada / U -145 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%under
O 3.586%under
O 4.573%under
O 5.558%under
O 6.543%under
O 7.530%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+125 / -150NYY / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total