MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / TBR 6NYYNew York Yankees39%
TBRTampa Bay Rays61%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
TBRHome starterIan SeymourConfirmed
NYY39%ML +112
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
TBR61%ML -134
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betonlineag / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Ian SeymourTBR starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 12 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 betrivers / U -103 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%over
O 10.52%over
O 11.51%over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -134NYY / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+161)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -119 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total