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NYY 0 / TBR 3
NYYNew York Yankees44%
TBRTampa Bay Rays56%

at Tropicana Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
TBRHome starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
NYY44%ML +100
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
TBR56%ML -120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.8 pts

Model has TBR at 56% vs market's 55%, essentially aligned. The 9.08 total is 2+ runs above market's 7.0—a massive gap. McClanahan's 3.05 ERA in 80 IP and Cole's 4.01 ERA both suggest competent pitching. Tropicana is neutral (PF 1.00). Model's total projection appears structurally off; lean under market 7.0.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 betmgm / U +115 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Shane McClanahanTBR starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -106 fanduel / U -112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+100 / -120NYY / TBR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total